slack

yes, i've been slack at posting here...

but its the end of the year and there's so many better things to do.

saving the planet can wait :-)

trade: OCO.AX - ORIEL COMMUNICATIONS

its been a while since i posted a stock trade, so here's another one.

my previous trade examples were done using candlestick charts.
this one uses a closing price line chart.

often different types of charts give slightly different pictures.
but as long as you are consistent with each trade, you can use any method you choose.

i like to vary my trades.
perhaps this is because i am still only learning. I've only been doing this about 5 years.
perhaps it is just my nature.

anyway this trade of OCO.AX is a typical breakout.


I bought today at $0.02, my stop is previous resistance at $0.017.
i have limited my position size because this is a highly speculative trade, and the initial risk/reward target is not the best.
but these breakouts usually have a high success rate.

Code	Buy	Stop	Target	Risk/Reward	Comments
OCO.AX	0.02	0.017	0.025	0.5c/0.3c	line breakout

almost anything is possible

in life i believe almost anything is possible.

technologically just about anything people can imagine, people can eventually make reality.

dreamers 500 years ago imagined man would reach the moon, cure diseases, fly in airplanes, communicate over vast distances etc.
this is now our reality.

500 years from now will be even more different than today.

i say 'almost' anything is possible because i know some things are impossible.

it is impossible that i did not exist.
it is impossible you did not read this post.
it is impossible to not be influenced by ideas.

Risk on...the mind

your brain is the most important tool in the universe.

your mind creates you.

you are self aware.
in other words your mind is aware that it is a mind.

the mind is a tool because it can use language to think and imagine.
it can control your limbs, to bring imagination to reality.

you create your own reality.
your mind interprets the universe around you and interacts with other minds.
everyone's perception of reality is slightly different.

remember, i am an atheist...
but the body is just a vessel.
it is a vessel for the mind.
that's where the true self lies.

time stops

I've mentioned stop losses and trailing stops before.

there's another type of loss I sometimes use.
this is a time stop.

when a company's stock price goes sideways for a long period of time, its sometimes better to sell it and put that cash to better use.
the opportunity cost of not doing so can add up.

ING properties has not yet reached my stop loss of $1.16, but has been going sideways between $1.17 and $1.18 for 2 weeks now.
I entered this as a long term trade, so am not too concerned, but i wouldnt like it to keep going sideways for another month either.

so if it doesnt trade at $1.19 within 2 weeks, I'll be selling it.
thats my time stop.
the trailing stop at $1.16 remains.

time flies

time is relative.

sometimes it seems that time goes by so fast, that i find it hard to keep up with myself. ;-)

the month of december always seems to me to be the fastest.

so much to do, so little time. so many queues.

G-java

i mentioned Gememaker a few posts ago, and i'm still playing around with it.

i came accross G-java, which is a utility that converts gamemaker games to java.
and since java can be added to web pages, that means that games developed in gamemaker can now be played on the web.

i get very exited about things like this
must be the passionate programmer in me :-)

Risk on...luck

I believe luck is strongly linked to the choices you make.

different choices have different probability of success.
so the more choices you make with good probabiliries behind them, the luckier you will tend to be.

but there is still an element of luck that is random.

to win a big lottery, you must buy a ticket...
but the lucky prize will only go to one person...
that person could have improved their chances by buying more than one ticket,
but if they bought too many they are not lucky, just foolish.

to be lucky consistently you also have to be a realist.

observation affects results?

as you've probably gathered by now, I dont blog on all my stockmarket trades...i just like to show different types of trades, from range trades to breakouts...from day trades to long term ones...and all of them posted more or less as they happen...in real-time.

this introduces a little extra risk.
when i post my stop loss, someone could read my post and manipulate the market so my stop loss is reached.
this is unlikely and i dont belive it has ever happened to me.
but its a possibility...at least in my mind ;-)

the reason i mention this is that today i remembered reading somewhere that in science the mere fact that you are observing something may be influencing the results of that observation.

for example, if you are investigating how often ducks "quack" by standing in front of them, you may get a totally different result than if you use a microphone instead, and both results could be different than if you didnt observe at all. (eg even a hidden mike could be interfering with the sound waves and make the ducks "quack" more or less than without observation)

There's no way to know If observation affects results,
because There's no way to evaluate results without observation.

just my thought for today :-)

Risk on...teenagers

the teenage years are probably the hardest in your life.

when you are a baby, you grow and change the fastest.
but your brain is not yet self-aware.

when you reach puberty there is also a lot of physical, and biological change.
but your brain is now self-aware,
and it is also full of new chemicals released in preparation for you to becoming an adult.

the physical changes are not half as bad as the emotional ones.
most teenagers feel they are too different, they dont fit in, everyone else is more talented, I'll never get a girlfriend, etc etc.
insecurity and teenagers go hand in hand.

but eventually the hormones settle down and most teenagers do come out ok.
most of the pimple scars heal and disappear
and so do most of the emotional ones.

if my children only read one of my posts when they are teenagers i hope it is this very one.

be strong.
everything will turn out ok.

rotavirus

one of my children is sick.

he's got the shits.
not ordinary ones either...but bright green jelly-like shit.
that goes well with the orange vomit he had the first day.
nice.

we found out its probably rotavirus, wich has been going around here.
its a common cause of diarrhea...mainly for the under 5's.

my kid is pretty healthy, so he's coping fine and still running around.

but I learnt today that an estimated 500,000 children die from it each year...
mainly in poor countries.
thats a lot of children.
a lot of families.
a lot of pain.

sometimes it pays to keep life in perspective.

milk

i find it amazing that all you need to survive as a baby is milk.

thats if you dont count oxygen, sleep, warmth and stuff...

breastfed babies are supposed to be healthier than formula fed ones too.
i suppose evolution knows best what we need to survive...
and many of the chemicals in formula fed to babies are just not natural.

i'm a firm believer in keeping it natural...keeping it real

i still drink milk

weekends

its the weekend, and i normally spend an hour or two reviewing my week's trades, and planning some new ones.

this is a good habit to get into...and it should even be written down in your plan.

interest rates

everything that happens in an economy affects stock prices in one way or another...either directly or inderectly.

New Zealand has had another interest rate increase.

normally i would expect that the sharemarket will suffer as a consequence.

but since i trade with momentum, and usually short term, its not so bad.
there are ALWAYS stocks going up.
the only difference sometimes there are more than others.

sharetrading books

i mentioned before that I have read many books on shraetrading...i would estimate at least 300.

however there is no need to read so many.
there is much repetition in what the authors say, and the truth is that trading is really very simple.

i read because i enjoy reading and because i am passionate.
not because i am looking for a trading holy grail or foolproof plan.

there is no holy grail. just common sense.
you buy, cut your losses, and let your profits run.
good trading is simplicity.

Risk on...passion

when it comes to love, most people are passionate...and rightly so, because love is most important.

but it is also good to be passionate about life itself
everything you do should be done with passion.

i enjoy fishing. i love it. it absorbs me and i am absorbed by it.
so it is with all my interests: my family, computers, camping, cycling, reading, learning, and the sharemarket, just to name a few.

everything i do thrills me.
life is exciting and anything but boring if you have passion in your blood.

ING update

my open trade of ING is currently at $1.17 ...getting close to the trailing stop at $1.16.

I could have had a more generous stop, but the NZ market is not doing great, and sometimes its better to take money off the table early.

i chose $1.16 as its just below support, and with the $0.025 divie, it still means the trade ends up with a very tiny profit.

game maker 6.1

i've done a bit of commercial computer programming in the past, and still like to program occasionally....most of it in java, PHP, or some other web language.

but today I came accross a cool little program called Game Maker which allows you to create games quickly just by drag n drop.

I spent about an hour and produced quite a good little game for the kids...using their own faces as graphics. :-)

if you ever wanted to program but didnt know where to start, this makes it a lot easier...
and you are not just limited to games...

balance

I believe that you should strive to balance most things in your life.

as the chinese symbol of Yin-Yang profoundly illustrates, our universe is constantly changing but there is a natural balance to this change.

there are times to be active, there are times to rest.

just like the seasons move in cycles, so does the sharemarket.

the market bulls and bears are in constant battle, and they take turns at being in control.

the bulls have clearly been winning these last few weeks, bust just like every high tide is followed by a low, remember that no uptrend lasts forever, and dont become complacent.

GoodMan Fielder IPO

I just received the prospectus documents for Goodman Fielder, which will list in both the New Zealand and Australian markets from late december.

my first thought is that this is a HUGE new listing...market cap will be at least $2.5 Billion dollars.

the prospectus is also the biggest I have seen...260 pages...most if it worthless as is the case with most prospectus documents I have seen. :-)

Because of the size of the company, they want to get as many mum and dad investors as possible...the offer has been advertised widely. and of course many fund managers and institutions will have no option but to add it to their portfolios.

my personal view is that this could be worth a quick 5% to 10% gain, and that 30% to 40% is achievable in 2 or 3 years.

so this is not one to suddenly make you rich, but should do better than money in the bank.

not much trading

i havent done much trading lately...just some looking.

my open ING trade is doing ok.
As i expected, this one was good for a dividend strip. Price touched $1.22 a few days after the divie record date...and recent support at $1.18 was not broken. Im still holding

I looked at WHS - The Warehouse Group recently too, but then there was an announcement that they are selling their Australian side, which should be positive medium to long term, but has had a negative impact to start with. so I'll look at this one again seriously when it settles a bit.

SMM still looks like a great trading stock because of its volatility. I did a daytrade on it (which I didnt post about) and walked away with a tiny profit. you definetely have to get to know the rythms of this stock and be prepared to jump in and out quickly.

Risk on...happiness

happiness is a state of mind.

two people can have similar lives and circumstances, but that doesnt mean they will share the same state of happiness.

I always feel happy on the inside.

if you are optimist and look at the bright side of things, have realistic expectations, and remember that life is what you chose to make it...then there is nothing that can destroy your happiness.

happiness is internal, but it is also a great thing to share.
the more you share it, the more it comes back to you.

happiness and love go hand in hand.